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23 jan 07
Mass extinction or mass evolution?
neither. we'll go on in our sorry state, evolving eventually and maybe going partially extinct (but probably not even that), but any rapture-type events are not forthcoming.
you do realize that people have been postulating the end of the world since the inception of civilization, right? i put "mass evolution" into the same category: fantasies of a great cataclysmic change of some kind; death, or transformation into gods.
maybe it's unbearable to think that the events in one's lifetime aren't going to be particularly notable, in the 2.5m years of human evolution, and a way around this is to talk about the end of the world or our turning into solar-powered cyborgs.
have you heard about that guy who has figured a cure for aging? well...who says that there's no good reason aging can't be cured, once a few imminently workable things are worked out.
time to break out the pretty tables again.
| cause of extinction |
likely? |
| biological |
no, but conceivable (like everything else). i doubt any naturally-evolved pathogen would do the trick (there were people resistant to the plague in 14th century europe who cared for the sick), but a genetically engineered virus, transported via nannites, could be whatever the engineers wanted. ie, spread through the skin, respiration, or body fluid, travel through the air, replicate faster than anything we've seen, and kill a host in a matter of hours. but even then, it's likely that some weirdos hanging out in the mountains of kazakhstan would be unaffected, and emerge, years later, in their turbans, to re-commence agriculture. |
| climactic |
nah. people can survive, and thrive, in any climate. perhaps it won't be a carnival cruise, but we'd get by (consider bedouins, eskimos, etc). |
| aliens |
not likely. they'd leave a few behind, or ignore a few in their mass experimental killings. this is the principle problem with human extinction: there are a LOT of us, we have powerful survival instincts, and we breed like rats. |
| space body |
doubt it. supposedly one killed off the dinosaurs, even though i don't know the details of that. but a lot of creatures survive these mass extincitions (that are often postulated to have been caused by space body) just fine. consider: cockroaches. "a cross between a virus and a cockroach" might be a good way to describe the human. |
| nuclear |
ha. no way. nuclear armageddon has been exagerrated. get thee to the andes somewhere, and you'll be fine. and even if your kids have a few extra limbs, just wait two generations. |
| eco/biosystem |
no way. we have a tendency to solve things at the last minute, and if there's ever the beginnings of a food shortage in a wealthy nation due to environmental damage, the hydroponics and enormous headless chicken genetic engineering research dollars will find themselves swelling abruptly. |
the evolution table is more positive, but again i have to stress that these aren't going to be anything sudden.
| cause of evolution |
likely? |
| technological |
yes -- already started (consider eyeglasses). also: artificial limbs, psychoactive drugs, pacemakers, metal rods in broken bones. |
| biological/genetic |
yes -- trimming out genes for alzheimers: expect it in 20 years. |
| natural |
yes -- we're going to end up looking like those "grey" aliens of literature. if you look at a picture of our evolution, from homo habillus to homo sapiens, and then extrapolate the next phase in physical development, it really does look a lot like one of those aliens: less hair, less muscle mass, taller, bigger brain-case, less of a brow. creepy. |
| spiritual |
hard to say. on the one hand, look at the dark ages and how we've progressed since then. on the other hand, look at the ancient greeks, and look how we've progressed since then. no -- the ancient greeks were into whipping slaves and the death penalty and such. my first thought is of these new-agers who get made fun of a lot. but, i think they might be onto something, and might be given more credit if they didn't use such fruity language to describe it. |
would you believe i only have one more question to answer, and then i'll be done? i'll probably get five more submissions while i'm at work, driving in the snow.
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